Mind Games

I have a silly game I like to play during the baseball season, and I think we're far enough along to introduce it for 2006. Basically, I split the entire 162-game schedule into a 9-inning game. There are actually 18 half-innings in a baseball game, and luck would have it that 162 divides by 18, yielding a result of 9. So I treat the full season as 18 9-game segments, each one representing a theoretical (and admittedly, meaningless) "half-inning."

After the Sox have played 9 games (and 18, 27, 36, etc.), I judge their performance during that stretch and give them a score. This gets plotted onto a traditional inning-by-inning line score, yielding a total score. Of course, because two teams are involved on a line score, every other tally that I give the Sox has to be couched in negative (run-prevention) terms, rather than positive (run-creation) terms.

I have a system for this. The Sox get a score ranging from zero to six for each half-inning. When the Sox are "in the field" (the top of each inning), the best possible score is zero, meaning they shut the "opposition" out. The worst score is 6, meaning they played terribly and the "opposition" gets 6 runs. When the Sox are "at bat" (the bottom of each inning), the scoring system is exactly reversed. Numbers between zero and 6 represent a gradient: a 1 while batting (or a 5 while fielding), means the Sox played very poorly, but not so terribly to merit a 0 (or 6). A score of 3, whether fielding or hitting, is the exact middle point. (Of course, when looking at 9 games, it's impossible that the Sox should play .500 ball; a score of 3 could result from going 4-5 but outscoring their opponents during that stretch, or from going 5-4 but blowing a 9th inning lead to a terrible team.)

Confused? Well, it's actually much simpler just to see, so let's try it out for this year. In the top of the first (the first 9 games of the year, through April 13), the Sox went 5-4. However, they only outscored their opponents 50-47, and lost two games to the Kansas City Royals, baseball's worst team. Therefore, they get a break-even score of 3, which gets credited to the opposition's line:

Team		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Opposition		3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
White Sox		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

In the following 9 games (through April 23), the Sox were absolutely dominant. They went 8-1, and outscored their foes 57-26. That's just about as good as a stretch of 9 games can be (short of 9-0, of course), so the Sox get a score of 6, credited to their own line:

Team		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Opposition		3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
White Sox		6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	6

So after one "inning," the Sox were leading 6 to 3. In the top of the second (games 19 through 27), the Sox went 6-3, outscoring their opponents 48-42. That stretch included a nice three-game sweep of the Angels, but also a series lost to the Mariners. Therefore, I'm giving them a score of 2. (Remember, the Sox are trying to prevent runs during the top of each inning, so a 2 is actually a good score.) Then the line score looks like this:

Team		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Opposition		3	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5
White Sox		6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	6

Therefore, after one and a half innings the Sox were "winning" 6 to 5. That may seem unfair to a team that was then 19-8, but this system isn't perfect, nor is it intended for anything but to amuse myself (and perhaps you). It should also be noted that the "final score" will not in any way resemble a baseball score, because in my system a score of 3 is perfectly average, whereas in actual baseball the vast majority of half-innings result in no runs; I figured it would be better to have a final score with large numbers rather than deal with negative or partial ones for individual innings.

So far the Sox have played well during the "bottom of the second," winning three games while losing just one (which, it must be said, they should have won - that game will hurt their "score"). Unless they crash and burn in the next five games, they'll almost certainly extend their "lead." From here on out during the regular season, I'll update the score after every 9 games (or when I remember). It's admittedly a silly exercise, but I think it's fun.

* * *

Some disturbing news out of our best pitcher (so far), Jose Contreras: he's hurting, and may need some time on the DL. Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus is (in my opinion) the best source for injury info, so I'll let him comment on the problem:

"Jose Contreras has been so good this season that few saw a health problem coming. The White Sox aren’t confirming Chicago radio reports that Contreras is heading to the DL with a hip problem. The Cuban pitcher had no problems prior to Sunday, when he reportedly injured himself while playing catch. Early descriptions of the injury–-sharp pain in the lower back and hip-–point to a lower back disc problem. The White Sox are likely to keep Brandon McCarthy in the pen and call up knuckleballer Charlie Haeger. Old BPR [Baseball Prospectus Radio] co-host Scott McCauley got a look at Haeger in Triple-A Charlotte this week and raved, so the Sox have that going for them. The team will make a DL decision on Contreras on Tuesday so that they can have someone in place for his scheduled Wednesday start."

Schilling-type foot injuries aside, the two most serious kinds of ailments that pitchers can face are ones affecting their throwing arms or backs, so hearing that this may be a disc problem is alarming. Still, the Sox have a very good medical and training staff, and the pitching depth to weather the storm. Obviously McCarthy would be the best long-term option, but he's not stretched out right now for starting; luckily, he realizes that fact, and is fine with it. So if Contreras does indeed end up on the DL, the Sox will probably go with Haeger, who I mentioned last post. ESPN's Rob Neyer actually wrote a piece on him today, entitled "Haeger appears to be the real thing," which I'll copy in full for you because you need an ESPN Insider subscription to read it:

"With the news that Charlie Haeger is probably going to start for the White Sox on Wednesday night in place of the injured Jose Contreras, I went scurrying to the record books. And what I discovered is that Haeger is apparently something of a prodigy. Here are the last four pitchers to debut in the majors as knuckleballers:

Pitcher	Debut	Age
Tim Wakefield	1992	25
Steve Sparks	1995	29
Dennis Springer	1995	30
Jared Fernandez	2001	29

"Haeger is only 22, which is all the more amazing when you learn that when he was 19, he didn't play professional baseball. A 25th-round draft pick in 2001, Haeger "retired" after two seasons in the lowest minors -- and went to college (and played golf). But as the Baseball America 2006 Prospect Handbook notes, "Haeger didn't give up on baseball completely. He worked on a knuckleball that had been suggested by minor league pitching coach Chris Sinacori and decided to give pitching another shot. Haeger rejoined the White Sox as a knuckleball specialist in 2004 and broke through with 14 wins last year."

"Eight of those wins came in Single-A, six in Double-A. His ERAs were decent enough at both levels, but the most impressive number: four home runs allowed in 168 innings. And this season in Triple-A, Haeger hasn't allowed a homer in 40 innings while posting a 0.45 ERA. It's been a meteoric rise for any sort of pitcher, let alone a knuckleballer. To find another who reached the majors so early, you have to go back to 1970, when Charlie Hough debuted at 22 years, 8 months, and 7 seven days. Eddie Fisher, who enjoyed a long, solid career, debuted in 1959 when he was roughly 22 years and 10 months old.

"Haeger's slightly younger than both of them. If he does pitch for the White Sox on Wednesday, he'll be 22 years, 7 months, and 21 days old on the occasion of his major league debut. I suppose that some other knuckleball pitcher was younger & but I haven't been able to find him yet.

"So is Haeger the next Tim Wakefield, or perhaps even the next Phil Niekro? Probably not. The knuckleball is notoriously capricious, and I believe that it's harder than ever to thrive as a practitioner (because so many bad knuckleballs become good home runs, and also because umpires still don't call the high strike). Also, I'm a little gun-shy. A few years ago, I touted Red Sox knuckleballer Charlie Zink, but he hit a wall and is just now beginning to re-establish himself as a decent prospect. But Haeger apparently is the real thing. Baseball America rated him as the White Sox's No. 14 prospect last winter, and I'm sure they haven't rated a knuckleballer so high in quite some time."

Obviously the most important thing is for Contreras to get healthy, both because he's been so good since last year's All-Star break, and because we don't really have another starter with as good "stuff." But if he's not going to be available, either for the short-term or long-term (and the latter is always a possibility with back troubles), it's good to know that the Sox have good options in McCarthy and Haeger.